by Jim Moran, Victorian Grains Biosecurity Officer
It has never been easier to access information, whether it’s credible or not.
We are constantly bombarded with information from the tv, the radio, emails, magazines, newspapers, social media and everyday conversations.
With a constant stream of information coming your way, it is also very easy to surround yourself with people who agree with you and news that you want to hear.
This is confirmation bias in action: the tendency to seek out and agree with information that supports your existing beliefs and ignore or discredit information that opposes them.
The most obvious examples of confirmation bias are in areas like politics, religion and sport. But, as farmers, it’s also associated with your selection of brands, breeds and even farming practices like biosecurity.
Science tells us that preventing pests, diseases and weeds entering your property is an excellent way to help prevent the establishment of exotic pests.
However, some farmers ignore science and follow tradition, the crowd, a neighbour, an anonymous tweet or an expert’s blog, based on ‘evidence’ that supports their existing beliefs.
So, before you say “I’ve nothing to worry about because there is no outbreak yet” consider whether you would say “I don’t need to put on a seatbelt because I haven’t had an accident this week.”
You wouldn’t, right?
Just because you don’t think you’ve got weevils it doesn’t mean you should stop cleaning grain spills, looking for pests, spraying desiccant dust inside empty storages and grain handling equipment, using protectants properly and fumigating in gas tight silos.
As farmers, it’s important to interpret data accurately. But confirmation bias rears its ugly head more often than most of us would like to admit and may lead you to make costly mistakes.
For example, even though it is illegal, some farmers continue using phosphine in unsealed storages or under tarps in truck loads. They continue because they get away with it, even when the science tells us that it doesn’t work properly in those conditions, can poison you and workers at receival sites, and harms the whole grains industry by contributing to a rise in insect resistance.
Thankfully, there are several ways to resist your inbuilt confirmation bias.
First, it is important to slow down. Pause and write down the reasons ‘for’ and ‘against’ your decision, do your own testing and research, and carefully consider the problem and any long-term implications.
Don’t rely on opinions to make your decisions: base them on data.
It’s also important not to ignore information simply because it conflicts with your current thinking. Instead, write down the reasons why the evidence may be true, and find the smartest person who disagrees with you and listen to them.
Another way is to get out of your ‘bubble’ and avoid echo chambers. Don’t limit yourself to only listening to the perspectives and insights of those in your bubble as they may lack the necessary expertise.
Finally, look at the publication date of the information, think about what the authors’ intentions were and their training or qualifications on the topic.
If you can, find other reliable sources of information to verify the claims made.
Remember these tools the next time you find yourself buying into an idea simply because it fits your ideas and ignoring information that doesn’t.
For free biosecurity gate signs, and copies of the Grains Farm Biosecurity Manual and Monitoring Stored Grain On Farm booklet, contact Jim Moran at Agriculture Victoria on 5430 4479.
This article was inspired by ‘COVID-19: how to deal with our cognitive biases’, an article in The Conversation by Fun Man Fung and Chng Wei Heng.